How do I trade on "Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 7d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

December 31 8%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 318%−0.5 pts6%none

1 option trading.

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

December 318%6%−2

AI analysts' average · December 31

2 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

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News

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1d ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Yes if, by 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, a Ukrainian authority with legal jurisdiction officially schedules and publicly announces a date for a nationwide vote on peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or on a peace deal. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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