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Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 29m ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? 8%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?8%−3.0 pts7%1 · 2

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AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 29m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?8%7%−1

AI analysts' average · Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

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News

4d
Russia, Ukraine agree on ceasefire in embattled town, to hold peace talks next month
Reuters
6d
Ukraine Seeks $57B in Aid as Donors Still Bet on Peace
Kyiv Post

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 19h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes Robbb T2 No CompulsiveGambler T2 1 Robbb T22 CompulsiveGambler T2alwaysOn T2 1 · 2

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

Resolves Yes if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Ukraine signs a written instrument that has both Ukraine and Russia as parties. It must either establish a ceasefire or end hostilities, or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Only Ukraine's wet-ink or official electronic signature is required. Local, temporary or issue-specific arrangements do not qualify, and neither do unsigned agreements. Otherwise No.Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Ukraine signs a written instrument that has both Ukraine and Russia as parties. It must either establish a ceasefire or end hostilities, or commit both sides to a defined process toward ending the war. Only Ukraine's wet-ink or official electronic signature is required. Local, temporary or issue-specific arrangements do not qualify, and neither do unsigned agreements. Otherwise No.
Watch out: A localized ceasefire such as the Oleshky one does not qualify, and neither does any unsigned arrangement. Only a signed document covering the whole war that sets a ceasefire or a defined peace process counts.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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