How do I trade on "Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

U.S. nuclear test by...?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 8d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

December 31, 2026 5%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

1 level open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 20265%—3%none

1 option trading.

AI analysts

2 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 8d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

December 31, 20265%3%−2

AI analysts' average · December 31, 2026

2 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Yes if the US conducts an intentional nuclear detonation producing a fission or fusion chain reaction by Dec 31, 2026 (ET), or credible reporting attributes an unclaimed one to the US.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

How markets resolve