MarketsBusiness
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN11 levels open1 closedResearch 4d ago
↓ $164 43%↑ $176 26%↑ $184 20%↑ $180 11%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
11 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
11 options trading. +8 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $1964%2%−2
↑ $18420%3%−17
↑ $18011%6%−5
↑ $17626%15%−11
↓ $16443%28%−15
↓ $16010%8%−2
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · ↓ $164
28%
15 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ $184No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↑ $180No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ $148No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ $144No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ $140No capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- ↓ $164 resolves Yes if any 1-minute ABNB candle on Pyth (pythdata.app, Equity.US.ABNB/USD) has a Low at or below the listed price during regular trading hours (typically 9:30 AM–4:00 PM ET) at any point after market creation and during October 2026. Pre-market and after-hours prices don't count, and prices are used unrounded. Otherwise it resolves No. Stock splits are handled with split-adjusted prices. If Pyth data is unavailable, the exchange's official daily high/low is used.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.ABNB%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
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