MarketsTech
What technical failure caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 3m agoPolymarket 24h vol $33.6K
Software or configuration error 77%Maintenance or upgrade work 75%Telecom carrier or contractor fault 71%EMP 10%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
7 levels openin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
Equipment or system failureNo smart money97%88%
Maintenance or upgrade workNo smart money75%82%
Cable cut or physical damageNo smart money1%
Software or configuration errorNo smart money77%62%
Telecom carrier or contractor faultNo smart money71%78%
SMART AI systemNo smart money2%
EMPNo smart money10%
7 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Equipment or system failure97%88%−9
Maintenance or upgrade work75%82%+7
Cable cut or physical damage1%
Software or configuration error77%62%−15
Telecom carrier or contractor fault71%78%+7
SMART AI system2%
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · Equipment or system failure
88%
9 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on Equipment or system failure
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
7 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Equipment or system failure resolves Yes if, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an authorized U.S. federal government representative publicly and officially attributes the November 13, 2026 FAA nationwide ground stop (or the outage behind it) to this cause as established. Statements that the cause is suspected, likely, under investigation or not ruled out do not count, nor do anonymous officials. More than one option can resolve Yes.
- Watch out
- Only on-record statements by authorized U.S. federal officials stating the cause as established count. 'Suspected', 'likely', 'under investigation' or 'not ruled out' wording and anonymous officials do not count, and a later retraction does not undo a qualifying attribution.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the cause or causes to which the U.S. government officially attributes the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026, between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the ground stop to the listed cause within this timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". More than one market may resolve to "Yes". The ground stop refers to the nationwide departure ground stop the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued on November 13, 2026. A cause qualifies if it is attributed as a cause of the ground stop or of the radio, radar, communications, or other system outage behind it. The listed causes are defined as follows: Equipment or system failure: a malfunction of hardware, software, power, or telecommunications equipment used by the FAA or its contractors, including one set off by maintenance work or accidental damage. A cyberattack, jamming, or sabotage is not a failure. Maintenance or upgrade work: planned maintenance, an upgrade, a configuration change, or a cutover on an FAA or contractor system. Cable cut or physical damage: accidental damage to a cable, line, antenna, or other physical equipment, including by construction work or weather. Software or configuration error: a fault in software, or a wrong setting or configuration, in an FAA or contractor system, including one introduced by an update or upgrade. Telecom carrier or contractor fault: the failure, damage, error, or work behind the outage was in equipment, a network, or a system run by a company other than the FAA, such as a telecommunications carrier or an FAA contractor. SMART AI system: a malfunction or error in, or the deployment or rollout of, the FAA's SMART air traffic management system, including its interaction with other FAA systems. EMP: an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including one produced by a nuclear or non-nuclear weapon or device, that disrupted or damaged electrical or electronic equipment used by the FAA or its contractors. Solar storms and other natural geomagnetic disturbances will not count. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the listed cause caused the ground stop or the outage behind it. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused by a cyberattack, jamming, or sabotage will also qualify for the relevant market. Statements describing a cause as suspected, likely, probable, under investigation, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with a cause, will not qualify. A statement that the ground stop followed a communication, radio, or radar outage or issue, without saying what caused that outage, will not qualify. A cause of a different outage or ground stop will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.