How do I trade on "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 levels openCloses Dec 31, 2026Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

↑ 4.25% 75% ↑ 4.75% 7% ↑ 4.5% 7% ↓ 0.25% 3%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

18 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

↑ 5.5%2%+0.1 pts1%none

↑ 5.25%2%−0.1 pts1%none

↑ 5.0%2%—1%none

↑ 4.75%7%−0.3 pts4%none

↑ 4.5%7%−0.1 pts9%0 · 1

↑ 4.25%75%−0.2 pts74%2 · 0

↓ 3.25%2%−1.2 pts2%1 · 1

↓ 3.0%1%—2%none

↓ 2.75%2%+0.1 pts1%0 · 1

↓ 2.25%2%−0.1 pts1%none

↓ 2.0%2%—1%none

↓ 1.75%1%—1%none

↓ 1.5%2%—1%none

↓ 1.25%2%+0.1 pts1%none

↓ 1.0%2%−0.3 pts1%none

↓ 0.75%2%+0.1 pts1%none

↓ 0.25%3%—1%none

↓ 0%3%+0.4 pts1%none

18 options trading. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

↑ 5.5%2%1%−1

↑ 5.25%2%1%−1

↑ 5.0%2%1%−1

↑ 4.75%7%4%−3

↑ 4.5%7%9%+2

↑ 4.25%75%74%−1

+12 more options

AI analysts' average · ↑ 4.25%

74%

1 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

14h
Fed Meeting Begins Today: Will Interest Rates Go Up Again?
Norada Real Estate Investments
1d
Fed Rate Hikes In 2027 What You Should Know
Forbes
1d
Interest Rate Forecast for Tomorrow: Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.75%–4.00%
Norada Real Estate Investments
1d
Fed to hit pause on rate hikes, but maybe not for long
Reuters
3d
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of US midterms
France 24
3d
Upper Cumberland Unemployment Rates Fall Across the Region
Upper Cumberland Business Journal
4d
Central Jakarta District Court Nullifies KPPU Ruling on Upper Limit of Online Loan Interest Rates
Kompas.com

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's Fed and rates traders by 3-month profit · updated 22h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

↑ 4.25%Yes ratehikes T1 2 ratehikes T1CDAP1 T2 02 · 0

↓ 3.25%Yes TheReturnOfDarthMaul T1 No ratehikes T11 TheReturnOfDarthMaul T11 ratehikes T11 · 1

↑ 4.5%No CDAP1 T201 CDAP1 T20 · 1

↓ 2.75%No CDAP1 T201 CDAP1 T20 · 1

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: ↑ 4.25% resolves Yes if the lower or upper bound of the Fed's target federal funds range reaches that level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency moves count. Otherwise it resolves No.
Resolution criteria: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

How markets resolve