What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 optionResearch 8d ago
$1.0T–$1.25T 6%
1 option
1 option trading. +7 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · $1.0T–$1.25T
level with the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if OpenAI completes an IPO by 2027-12-31 11:59 PM ET and the final IPO price per share times fully diluted shares outstanding, per the final SEC prospectus, is from $1.0T up to (but not including) $1.25T. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher range. Price ranges, first-day trading prices and earlier filings don't count. If there is no IPO by the deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket, so this one resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
