MarketsPolitics
What will Trump say on November 4?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $285.2
Strait / Hormuz / Blockade 50%Veto 50%Filibuster 50%Tariff 50%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
19 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Rigged 5+ times45%——none
Fraud / Fraudulent 5+ times45%——none
Corrupt / Corruption 5+ times49%——none
Strait / Hormuz / Blockade50%——none
Mail-in22%——none
Impeach / Impeachment / Impeached52%——none
Mandate50%——none
Congratulations / Congrats59%——none
Red Wave50%——none
Fake News51%——none
Veto50%——none
Filibuster50%——none
Tariff50%——none
Transgender50%——none
Allah46%——none
Bibi48%——none
AI / SI50%——none
Israel50%——none
China50%——none
19 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
19 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf