MarketsClimate
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 2d ago
No return before November 1, 2026 88%October 1 - 31, 2026 11%
2 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 1 - 31, 202611%55%+44
No return before November 1, 202688%39%−49
AI analysts' average · No return before November 1, 2026
39%
49 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 312–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 1 - 31, 2026Yes nellojellonellojello: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 nellojellonellojello: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
No return before November 1, 2026Yes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Both markets are decided by the first Kaub gauge reading (station 25700100, PegelOnline) at or above 77 cm on or after the market's start. A single reading is enough. If none is recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), the outcome is 'No return before November 1, 2026'. 'No return before November 1, 2026' resolves Yes in that case and otherwise No. 'October 1 - 31, 2026' resolves Yes if a reading at or above 77 cm is recorded within that period, and otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
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