MarketsPolitics
When will Trump leave China?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $318.8
November 20 65%November 21 44%November 19 41%November 22 23%
8 optionsin level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
Before November 18No smart money1%
November 18No smart money12%
November 19No smart money41%
November 20No smart money65%
November 21No smart money44%
November 22No smart money23%
After November 22No smart money4%
No visit by November 22No smart money5%
8 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.