MarketsWeather
Where will it rain on November 12?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $100.8
Philadelphia, PA 93%Washington, DC 81%Miami, FL 57%Houston, TX 46%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
10 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
Los Angeles, CANo smart money24%
Houston, TXNo smart money46%
Dallas, TXNo smart money46%
Phoenix, AZNo smart money46%
Philadelphia, PANo smart money93%
Washington, DCNo smart money81%
Atlanta, GANo smart money6%
Miami, FLNo smart money57%
New Orleans, LANo smart money46%
San Francisco, CANo smart money19%
10 options trading.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on November 12, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. A governing report that gives the figure as missing ("M" or "MM") is treated as reporting 0.00 inches, and this market will resolve to "No". If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.