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Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN15 optionsResearch 5d ago
China 81%No meeting by December 31 17%Russia <1%Other <1%
15 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
15 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
China81%65%−16
No meeting by December 3117%20%+3
Russia<1%1%0
Other<1%6%+5
United States<1%1%0
Gulf country<1%1%+1
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · China
65%
16 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
No meeting by December 31Yes Javier777MileiJavier777Milei: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No FulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 Javier777MileiJavier777Milei: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 4 FulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Sylvester.the.CatSylvester.the.Cat: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 4
ChinaYes FulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 FulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xrc0xrc: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
United StatesYes BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
BelarusYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
11 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes for China if the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin (with direct interaction such as conversation or a handshake) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET takes place in China. If no qualifying meeting occurs in that period, 'No meeting by December 31' resolves Yes and every country option resolves No. Gulf states means the six GCC members. Resolution is by consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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