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Which 2028 presidential primary is decided first?
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Which 2028 presidential primary is decided first? 35%
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Which 2028 presidential primary is decided first?No smart money35%
1 open level, in level order.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Democrats" if the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential primary is decided before the Republican Party's 2028 presidential primary. This market will resolve to "Republicans" if the Republican Party's 2028 presidential primary is decided before the Democratic Party's 2028 presidential primary. A party's presidential primary will be considered decided at the moment a candidate is projected to have secured the number of delegates required to win that party's 2028 presidential nomination on the first ballot of its national convention (i.e., becomes the presumptive nominee), as called by a consensus of the Associated Press, NBC News, CNN, Fox News, and The New York Times. A consensus is reached once all of these organizations have concurrently made such a projection for the same candidate. If any of these organizations does not maintain its own delegate count for a party's 2028 presidential primary, it will be considered struck from the list for that primary, and the remaining organizations will be used. If no candidate is projected to have secured the required number of delegates before a party's national convention, that party's primary will be considered decided at the moment its presidential nominee formally accepts the nomination at the convention. The suspension or withdrawal of other candidates will not, by itself, cause a primary to be considered decided. If both parties' primaries are considered decided at the same time, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution sources for this market will be the delegate projections of the Associated Press, NBC News, CNN, Fox News, and The New York Times; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.