MarketsTech
Which company has the best AI model on December 15?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $852.4
Google 60%OpenAI 32%Anthropic 25%Mistral 23%
21 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
GoogleNo smart money60%
OpenAINo smart money32%
AnthropicNo smart money25%
MistralNo smart money23%
MicrosoftNo smart money21%
AmazonNo smart money21%
ByteDanceNo smart money21%
AlibabaNo smart money20%
BaiduNo smart money20%
Z.aiNo smart money20%
XiaomiNo smart money20%
SpaceXAINo smart money20%
NvidiaNo smart money20%
ThinkyNo smart money20%
MeituanNo smart money20%
TencentNo smart money20%
StepFunNo smart money20%
MetaNo smart money16%
MoonshotNo smart money14%
DeepSeekNo smart money10%
MiniMaxNo smart money10%
21 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
21 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 15, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".