How do I trade on "Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 optionsCloses Feb 1, 2027Research 15h ago

Polymarket chance · top 3 of 3 options

Avengers: Doomsday 59%Spider-Man: Brand New Day 42%Dune: Messiah <1%

3 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Avengers: Doomsday59%−0.5 pts48%6 · 0

Spider-Man: Brand New Day42%+1.5 pts51%0 · 3

Dune: Messiah<1%+0.1 pts1%none

3 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 15h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Avengers: Doomsday59%48%−11

Spider-Man: Brand New Day42%51%+9

Dune: Messiah<1%1%+1

AI analysts' average · Avengers: Doomsday

48%

11 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's movie traders by 3-month profit · updated 14m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

Avengers: DoomsdayYes New.Jeans T1 6 New.Jeans T1Red781RuM T1 06 · 0

Spider-Man: Brand New DayNo Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed T1 03 Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed T1buoys T1 0 · 3

1 option: no ranked trader holds it

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if Avengers: Doomsday has the largest 3-day (Fri–Sun) domestic opening weekend of any movie released in 2026, using the final (not estimated) figures in The Numbers' Weekend Box Office Performance table. Ties go to the title first alphabetically. If there is no final data by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible source is chosen.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

How markets resolve