MarketsElections
Which parties will support the new Israeli government in the vote of confidence by February 28?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $936.5
Yashar 70%Bennett 2026 67%Ra'am 61%Yisrael Beiteinu 60%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
17 levels openby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
YasharNo smart money70%
Bennett 2026No smart money67%
Ra'amNo smart money61%
Yisrael BeiteinuNo smart money60%
Homat Torat YisraelNo smart money59%
Yesh AtidNo smart money58%
Ta'alNo smart money51%
The DemocratsNo smart money50%
Degel HaTorahNo smart money46%
Agudat YisraelNo smart money45%
Religious Zionist PartyNo smart money43%
ZehutNo smart money40%
LikudNo smart money38%
ShasNo smart money38%
BaladNo smart money38%
Otzma YehuditNo smart money37%
HadashNo smart money35%
17 options trading, by chance.
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a majority of the listed political party's Members of the Knesset vote "For" in the first vote of confidence in a new Israeli government held following the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the result of this vote of confidence is officially confirmed. A party's Members of the Knesset are defined as the members listed under that party in the "List of members-elect" section of the 26th Knesset Wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/26th_Knesset#List_of_members-elect) as of 12:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026. A majority means more than half of these Members; Members who vote "Against", abstain, are absent, or otherwise do not vote "For" will not count toward the majority. If no such vote of confidence is held, or the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Only a vote of confidence held by the 26th Knesset, elected on October 27, 2026, will be considered. If the 26th Knesset is dissolved and a new election is called before such a vote is held, this market will resolve to "No". Votes of confidence held after any subsequent Knesset election will not be considered. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.