Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN11 levels openResearch 1d ago
Ohio (Special) 59%Nebraska 57%South Carolina 49%Minnesota 38%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
11 levels open · by chance
11 options trading, by chance. +8 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Texas
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if the Texas 2026 Senate race (election November 3, 2026) has a margin of victory of 5 percentage points or less, and otherwise No. The margin is the absolute difference between the first- and second-place candidates' shares of all valid votes cast. For runoffs or multi-round contests, the margin is taken from the round that decides the winner. The state election authority is the resolution source, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trading ends 2026-11-04T04:5…
- Resolution criteria
- The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
