MarketsPolitics
Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $1.5K
Pete Hegseth 24%Marco Rubio 16%Linda McMahon 15%Howard Lutnick 12%
25 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
Pete HegsethNo smart money24%25%
Marco RubioNo smart money16%10%
Linda McMahonNo smart money15%12%
Howard LutnickNo smart money12%13%
Lee ZeldinNo smart money11%
John RatcliffeNo smart money7%
Todd BlancheNo smart money6%
Chris WrightNo smart money6%
Brooke RollinsNo smart money6%
Scott BessentNo smart money5%10%
Jamieson GreerNo smart money4%
Sean DuffyNo smart money4%
Doug BurgumNo smart money4%
J.D. VanceNo smart money4%
Russell T. VoughtNo smart money3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.No smart money3%
Kelly LoefflerNo smart money3%
Doug CollinsNo smart money3%
None before 2029No smart money2%4%
Jay ClaytonNo smart money2%
Stephen MillerNo smart money1%10%
Markwayne MullinNo smart money1%
Scott TurnerNo smart money<1%
Mike WaltzNo smart money<1%
Keith SonderlingNo smart money<1%
25 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Pete Hegseth24%25%+1
Marco Rubio16%10%−6
Linda McMahon15%12%−3
Howard Lutnick12%13%+1
Lee Zeldin11%
John Ratcliffe7%
+19 more options
AI analysts' average · Pete Hegseth
25%
1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on Pete Hegseth
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
25 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Pete Hegseth resolves Yes if Pete Hegseth is the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration, before December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise it resolves No. 'None before 2029' resolves Yes only if no one leaves by then.
- Watch out
- An announcement of resignation or removal resolves the market at once, whatever the effective date. Acting officials do not count, and a nomination alone is not a departure. Someone moving to a different Cabinet-level role still counts as having left.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2029". An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed assumes a listed Cabinet position, they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a Cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.