MarketsPolitics
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2028?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Last trade · 1m agoPolymarket 24h vol $2.3K
Howard Lutnick 65%Pete Hegseth 58%Kristi Noem 57%Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 31%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
15 levels openby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.Buy
Howard LutnickNo smart money65%
Pete HegsethNo smart money58%
Kristi NoemNo smart money57%
Kash PatelNo smart money42%
Marco RubioNo smart money39%
David SacksNo smart money36%
Lee ZeldinNo smart money32%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.No smart money31%
Tom HomanNo smart money31%
Dan ScavinoNo smart money27%
Russell VoughtNo smart money25%
Markwayne MullinNo smart money24%
Stephen MillerNo smart money21%
John RatcliffeNo smart money20%
Scott BessentNo smart money20%
15 options trading, by chance.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
15 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.