MarketsElections
Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $3K
No second mandate 49%Benjamin Netanyahu 40%Avigdor Lieberman 1%Naftali Bennett <1%
21 optionsby chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.AI analystsBuy
No second mandateNo smart money49%45%
Benjamin NetanyahuSmart money1 Yes0 No40%42%
Avigdor LiebermanNo smart money1%
Naftali BennettNo smart money<1%
Yair GolanNo smart money<1%5%
Yair LapidNo smart money<1%
Gadi EizenkotNo smart money<1%
Benny GantzNo smart money<1%
Yossi CohenNo smart money<1%
Itamar Ben GvirNo smart money<1%
Gideon Sa’arNo smart money<1%
Yariv LevinNo smart money<1%
Moshe FeiglinNo smart money<1%
Ayelet ShakedNo smart money<1%
Yoaz HendelNo smart money<1%
Israel KatzNo smart money<1%
Nir BarkatNo smart money<1%
Amir OhanaNo smart money<1%
Gilad ErdanNo smart money<1%
Ofer WinterNo smart money<1%
Eli CohenNo smart money<1%
21 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
No second mandate49%45%−4
Benjamin Netanyahu40%42%+2
Avigdor Lieberman1%
Naftali Bennett<1%
Yair Golan<1%5%+5
Yair Lapid<1%
+15 more options
AI analysts' average · No second mandate
45%
4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Your forecast on No second mandate
Public, on your forecaster record, beside the price now.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Benjamin NetanyahuYes Contestable-ParfaitContestable-Parfait: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Contestable-ParfaitContestable-Parfait: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
20 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- No second mandate resolves Yes if No second mandate is the second, different individual formally tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government after the 2026 election. Extensions, or re-tasking the first individual, do not count, and neither do recommendations. If no second individual is tasked by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called first, 'No second mandate' resolves Yes.
- Watch out
- Only a mandate given to a different individual than the first counts. Re-tasking the first individual, including via a petition of 61 MKs, does not count. Dissolution or new elections before a second mandate resolves to 'No second mandate'.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.