Vladimir Putin 82%Mohammed bin Salman 71%Kim Jong Un 19%Aleksandr Lukashenko 10%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
11 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7d ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Vladimir Putin82%74%−8
Mohammed bin Salman71%65%−6
Kim Jong Un19%16%−3
Aleksandr Lukashenko10%11%+1
King Mohammed VI7%4%−3
Changpeng Zhao6%9%+3
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · Vladimir Putin
74%
8 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
Polymarket's geopolitics traders by 3-month profit · updated 3h ago
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Vladimir PutinYesFulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·NoalwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T22FulguratorFulgurator: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·RobbbRobbb: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21alwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T22 · 1
Kim Jong UnYessmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·No101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T22101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·alwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21 · 2
Aleksandr LukashenkoYesRobbbRobbb: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T2·NoalwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21RobbbRobbb: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21alwaysOnalwaysOn: Tier 2, #44 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21 · 1
Mohammed bin SalmanNosmellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T201smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T20 · 1
King Mohammed VIYes101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T21101456101456: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry.T201 · 0
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 11 options
Yes if Putin and Trump meet in person and interact at any time from 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, per consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise No.Show rulesHide rules
In plain English
Yes if Putin and Trump meet in person and interact at any time from 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31 11:59 PM ET, per consensus of credible reporting. Otherwise No.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual meets with Donald Trump between January 1, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.