Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Resolved0 levels open1 closedResearch 9d ago
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
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1 closed level
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The calls
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
6 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 1 price closer, on 371–571 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Yes if nationwide election-day voting for the 26th Knesset takes place on 27 Oct 2026. It is No if nationwide voting happens earlier or is postponed past that date. Local disruptions don't matter, and early or special voting doesn't count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if general voting in the election for the 26th Knesset takes place in Israel on October 27, 2026. For the purposes of this market, "general voting" means nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. This market will still resolve to "Yes" if voting is postponed, cancelled, or disrupted in a limited number of individual localities or polling stations, so long as nationwide voting proceeds on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "No" if nationwide Knesset voting occurs before October 27, 2026 (e.g., due to a snap election), or October 27, 2026 passes without nationwide Knesset voting having occurred (e.g., due to nationwide postponement). Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the date of general election-day voting counts. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.