Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 3d ago
October 31 1%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
1 open level, in level order.
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · October 31
10 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 360–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if James Talarico and Ken Paxton both take part live (on stage or virtually) in a televised or live-streamed debate or candidate forum, and both answer at least one question while the other is present, between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Prerecorded appearances and separate-time forums do not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if both James Talarico and Ken Paxton participate in a televised or live-streamed debate or candidate forum between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, both listed individuals must be present, either on stage or in a virtual forum, and both must respond to at least one question while the other is present. Virtual live participation will qualify. Prerecorded appearances will not qualify. A candidate forum in which both candidates participate at different times will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the debate; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
