Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

Polymarket prices · as of 10:35 UTCCloses Jan 1, 2027Polymarket 24h vol $186.8

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? 13%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

1 level open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?13%———

1 open level, in level order.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.