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Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Polymarket prices · as of Polymarket 24h vol $4.8K
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31? 8%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
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Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?No smart money8%6%
1 open level, in level order.
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Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?8%6%−2
AI analysts' average · Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?
6%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Donald Trump makes a public statement (written, verbal or recorded, in public, posted by him, or on the record to media) that insults Pete Hegseth, personally or professionally, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. Criticism of specific actions, policies or decisions does not count, and neither do leaked private remarks, reposts or paraphrases.
- Watch out
- Criticism of Hegseth's specific actions, policies or decisions does not count. Only insults aimed at him personally or in his professional capacity qualify, and leaked private remarks do not count.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Pete Hegseth between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Pete Hegseth, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Pete Hegseth within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Pete Hegseth either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., "He isn't smart", "He has no judgment"). Disparaging him in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Pete Hegseth will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.