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Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN21 optionsCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 47m ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 21 options

Anthropic 56%Google 36%OpenAI 5%Meituan 3%

21 options · by chance

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Anthropic56%−5.0 pts57%1 · 0
Google36%+11.5 pts29%1 · 0
OpenAI5%−1.0 pts10%none
Meituan3%−0.5 pts—none
Nvidia3%——none
Alibaba1%——none
Meta1%−5.2 pts3%none
Z.ai<1%——none
Baidu<1%——none
Moonshot<1%+0.1 pts—none
ByteDance<1%——none
Tencent<1%——none
DeepSeek<1%——none
Amazon<1%——none
Mistral<1%——none
Xiaomi<1%——none
StepFun<1%——none
Thinky<1%——none
MiniMax<1%——none
SpaceXAI<1%——none
Microsoft<1%——none

21 options trading, by chance.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 47m ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic56%57%+1
Google36%29%−7
OpenAI5%10%+5
Meituan3%——
Nvidia3%——
Alibaba1%——
+15 more options

AI analysts' average · Moonshot

—

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 5h
    Moonshot AI Releases Kimi K3.1 Pro: A 2.8T Total/104B Active Params (MoE) Model with 1M Context
    MarkTechPost
  • 10h
    Moonshot AI Releases Kimi K3.1 Pro, First Model in New K3.1 Series
    Unite.AI
  • 10h
    Moonshot Debuts First AI Upgrade Since Its Own DeepSeek Moment
    Bloomberg.com
  • 11h
    ASEAN moonshot: AI and women
    Daily Tribune
  • 18h
    Moonshot AI's New Model Kimi K3.1 Apparently Leaked, With 3D Code Generation in Focus
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    The 17-Year-Old AI Prodigy Who Impressed Even Musk Leaves Moonshot for Jeff Dean's Startup
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    17-Year-Old AI Researcher Chen Guangyu Leaves Moonshot's Kimi for Jeff Dean's Startup Discovery Loop
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    China's Moonshot AI to operate in Singapore, jobs post shows
    Reuters
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
AnthropicYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
GoogleYes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0

19 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 21 options

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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Moonshot · Buy YesOption 10 of 21

Polymarket price · live

Yes1¢
No100¢

Mid: The midpoint between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. When the spread is 10¢ or less, this is the chance the page shows. 1¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 1¢

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Before you decide · Moonshot

  • News5 today · latest 5h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.