MarketsAI
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by November 30, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
68% chance
— 24hTop traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews 4 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Opus · Haiku
- match: Opus · Anthropic
- match: Opus · Anthropic
- match: Opus
- match: Opus
- match: Opus
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Yes if Anthropic makes a model whose name includes 'Opus' with version 5.6 or higher (for example Opus 5.6 or Opus 6) publicly available between market creation and Nov 30, 2026 ET, via a public announcement or explicit labeling on its official site; open betas and open waitlists count. No for any Opus 5.5 snapshot or promotion, non-Opus models (a new Fable, Sonnet or Haiku), closed betas, private access, or placeholder labels.
Latest
Anthropic's news page lists no Opus model newer than Opus 5.5; its latest item is an Oct 14 announcement of a Singapore office.
www.anthropic.comAnthropic released Claude Opus 5.5 on all platforms and called it "our first release since we called for pacing the frontier", after CEO Dario Amodei argued the prior week that AI progress should be paced.
www.anthropic.comThe Opus 5.5 announcement said Claude Sonnet 5.5 and Claude Haiku 5.5 would follow in the coming weeks; Anthropic announced Sonnet 5.5 on Sept 28 and Haiku 5.5 on Oct 7.
www.anthropic.com +1
Case for Yes
Opus releases in 2026 came 42, 57 and 60 days apart (Apr 16, May 28, Jul 24, Sep 22); Nov 30 is 69 days after Opus 5.5, longer than each of those gaps.
Case for No
Anthropic framed Opus 5.5 as its first release since calling for pacing the frontier; the 5.5 wave (Sonnet Sept 28, Haiku Oct 7) has only just finished; no successor Opus had been announced as of Oct 14.
What to watch next Anthropic's news page and model announcements for any Opus 5.6 or Opus 6; statements on its pacing commitments; the Nov 30, 2026 ET deadline.
Full research
Earlier
Anthropic announced Claude Opus 5, available that day on all platforms.
www.anthropic.comAnthropic announced Claude Opus 4.8: "available everywhere today."
www.anthropic.comAnthropic announced Claude Opus 4.7 as generally available.
www.anthropic.com
Sources
- Anthropic: Introducing Claude Opus 4.7 · www.anthropic.com
- Anthropic: Introducing Claude Opus 4.8 · www.anthropic.com
- Anthropic: Introducing Claude Opus 5 · www.anthropic.com
- Anthropic: Introducing Claude Opus 5.5 · www.anthropic.com
- Anthropic: Newsroom · www.anthropic.com
Research, not advice.
Top traders
1 of the top 50 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
