MarketsAI
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
22% chance
+1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 29% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 20%
The reported Google leader appears to be a listed outcome; conflicting secondary snapshots do not establish an overlooked contender.
- 18%
Reported leader appears to be a listed model, but the complete named alternatives and current table are unverified.
- 37%
Market prior; the incomplete list of named outcomes prevents a reliable independent estimate of Other.
- 37%
Neither the current leaderboard nor the complete roster defining 'Other' is verified; retain the market estimate.
- 30%
An unlisted model taking #1 by Oct 26 needs a surprise release; Gemini 4 Argon is likely listed.
- 33%
No leaderboard read; Gemini 4 Argon reportedly #1 with a Gemini 4 Pro launch possible.
- 30%
Unclear which models are listed; Gemini 4 argon reportedly leads.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves to the model ranked #1 in the 'Rank' column of arena.ai Text Arena Overall (style control off, Adjustments: None, filtered to 'Models') at 12:00 PM ET on 2026-10-26. Ties are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically. 'AutoEval' models don't count. Models not listed in the market fall under 'Other'. The question asks whether the #1 model will be something other than the model named in the market's reference option. I couldn't see that option's name, so I can't say which name…
Latest
2026-10: Aggregator sites disagree with each other. A search summary of swfte.com says Claude Mythos 5 leads at 1531. A swfte.com page lists Claude Opus 5.5, Claude Fable 5, Claude Opus 5 and Claude Mythos 5 at 1509 to 1531, and does not mention Gemini 4. Those pages look unreliable and are not the…
manifold.markets +1The market's own tiebreak example uses 'gemini-4-argon-high', which suggests that model is listed in the market group.
manifold.markets +1arena.ai/leaderboard returned HTTP 403 to my fetch, so I could not get a dated live snapshot from the resolution source.
manifold.markets +1A Manifold market (Terminator2, 'which lab will have the #1 model') said Google's gemini-4-argon-high took #1 on the Arena text leaderboard with a score of 1525. It put Anthropic's best model at 1505, a gap of about 20 points. It said Gemini 4 Pro launched about four weeks earlier than …
manifold.markets +1That market's traders priced Google at 84% to be #1 on 2026-10-31 and Anthropic at 11%. These are market prices, not leaderboard data. (Manifold)
manifold.marketsA search snippet said Anthropic held the top 3 text spots: claude-fable-5 at 1507, claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1505 and claude-opus-4-7-thinking at 1502. (Manifold, via search)
manifold.markets
What to watch next Check of the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall, no style control) leaderboard on 2026-10-26 at 12:00 PM ET.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
29%
7 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top traders1 of the top 22 AI rankings traders holds this1 Yes · 0 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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