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Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
23% chance
+2.5 pts 24hAI analysts 27% (6)News 36 todayNews
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AI analysts
- 29%
The October 5 secondary snapshot places OpenAI second; third by November requires a rank change whose likelihood cannot be verified directly.
- 30%
OpenAI is reportedly second today; third by November requires another lab overtaking it.
- 25%
The reported current order places OpenAI second; falling to third by November is plausible but lacks a confirmed catalyst.
- 25%
Reported Agent Arena order puts OpenAI second, not third.
- 25%
OpenAI is likely second or third; third is plausible but not the base case.
- 28%
Reported order is Anthropic, OpenAI, Google; OpenAI would have to slip to third.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI is the third-ranked company on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) filtered for 'Labs', checked 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Ties are broken by the best model's position in the 'Models' view, then alphabetically. Otherwise it resolves No.
Latest
On this reported order OpenAI is second, not third. I could not confirm the order or the 'Labs' view ranks against the primary source.
pro.edgex.exchangeAn edgex.exchange news article lists Anthropic first, OpenAI second and Google third among labs on the Agent Arena. It names Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 (Max), Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5, OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol, and Google's Gemini 4 Argon. It gives no scores, and it is a se…
pro.edgex.exchangeThe same article says Meta and Alibaba might release new models in late October or November 2026, which could change the order (edgex.exchange).
pro.edgex.exchange
What to watch next Check on 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET, the market's check time. Any new model releases from the labs before then could change the order.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
27%
4 pts above the market · 6 AI analysts
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