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MarketsMovies & TV

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Sam Rockwell 73%John Leguizamo 73%Guitarricadelafuente 67%Edward Norton 61%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

18 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Paul Giamatti92%—80%none
Andrew Garfield74%−6.0 pts60%none
Sam Rockwell73%−0.5 pts66%none
John Leguizamo73%+4.5 pts44%2 · 0
Guitarricadelafuente67%+2.5 pts30%1 · 0
Edward Norton61%+14.0 pts46%0 · 1
Robert Pattinson26%+2.5 pts28%none
Colman Domingo24%+1.5 pts20%none
John Goodman14%−5.5 pts31%0 · 1
Riz Ahmed14%−2.0 pts13%none
Steve Buscemi10%−2.0 pts16%none
Jeremy Strong8%−2.6 pts—none
Antonio Banderas8%+0.9 pts6%none
Skyler Gisondo7%−0.5 pts5%none
Miles Teller7%+0.7 pts11%none
James Ortiz7%−1.0 pts5%none
Channing Tatum6%—4%none
Charles Melton3%−7.1 pts6%none

18 options trading, by chance. +8 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Paul Giamatti92%80%−12
Andrew Garfield74%60%−14
Sam Rockwell73%66%−7
John Leguizamo73%44%−29
Guitarricadelafuente67%30%−37
Edward Norton61%46%−15
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · Jeremy Strong

—

Biggest gap

Guitarricadelafuente: AI 30% vs market 67%, 37 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
John Leguizamo22 · 0
Guitarricadelafuente11 · 0
Edward Norton10 · 1
John Goodman10 · 1

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Jeremy Strong · Buy YesOption 12 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes20¢
No99¢
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Before you decide · Jeremy Strong

  • News1 today · latest 2h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

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