MarketsAI
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
8% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 9% (5)Top traders 4 Yes · 1 NoNews 3 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: AI · model
- match: Moonshot
- match: Moonshot · AI
- match: Chinese · AI · model
- match: Moonshot
- match: Moonshot
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Settles on the company with the top-ranked model among primarily Chinese companies on arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard, style control off, Models view, checked Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. Order is by the Rank column, then by Arena score; models marked AutoEval are excluded.
Latest
In LMArena's published Text data (overall, no style control), the top Chinese model is Xiaomi's mimo-v2.6-pro at 1490.28, ahead of Alibaba's qwen3.8-max (1482.45) and Moonshot's kimi-k3-max (1475.57).
huggingface.co
Case for Yes
Moonshot's kimi-k3-max (1475.57, 32,036 votes) is the third Chinese model, 14.7 points below Xiaomi's leader, whose score rests on only 4,071 votes with a wider published interval (about 1480.9-1499.6).
Case for No
As of the Oct 13 data both Xiaomi (1490.28) and Alibaba (1482.45) have higher-scoring models than Moonshot's best (1475.57), and kimi-k3-max's score has been roughly flat since July.
What to watch next New leaderboard snapshots and any new Chinese model entries before the Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET check, and whether any top Chinese entry carries an AutoEval mark on the live page.
Full research
What decides it
Settles on the company with the top-ranked model among primarily Chinese companies on arena.ai's Text Arena Overall leaderboard, style control off, Models view, checked Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. Order is by the Rank column, then by Arena score; models marked AutoEval are excluded. Yes needs a Moonshot model to be the top Chinese entry. The live Rank column can show ties, so ranks there may differ from the published data's score order.
Sources
- lmarena-ai/leaderboard-dataset (Hugging Face) · huggingface.co
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
9%
1 pts above the market · 5 AI analysts
All 5, with track records
AI analysts
- 9%
- 8%
- 10%
- 12%
- 8%
Top traders
5 of the top 21 hold this market4 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
