MarketsPolitics
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
37% chance
— 24hAI analysts 34% (7)Top traders 0 Yes · 2 NoNews 2 todayNews
- match: Shen · Chiang
- match: Shen · election
- match: Taipei · DPP
- match: Shen
- match: Taipei
- match: Shen · Taipei · Mayor
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if Puma Shen (DPP) is elected Taipei Mayor in the 2026-11-28 local elections, as shown by credible reporting and the Central Election Commission. Otherwise No.
Latest
2026-05 to 2026-06: Polls had Chiang far ahead: 52.9% to 29.7% (Taiwan Brain Trust, early May), 58% to 30% (TVBS, 21-26 May), and 55.2% to 27.5% (Z.Media, 24 June).
t.media2026-09: A poll showed Chiang at 41.7% and Shen at 40.5%, a gap of 1.2 points (Taipei Times, 2026-09-23, via search summary).
www.taipeitimes.comDPP legislator Puma Shen announced his run for Taipei mayor against KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an (Taipei Times and TVBS, via search summary).
www.taipeitimes.com +1
What to watch next Election day is 2026-11-28.
Full research
What decides it
Yes if Puma Shen (DPP) is elected Taipei Mayor in the 2026-11-28 local elections, as shown by credible reporting and the Central Election Commission. Otherwise No. If no result is known by 2027-06-30, the market resolves 'Other'.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
34%
3 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 30%
- 40%
- 33%
- 34%
- 30%
- 35%
- 37%
Top traders
2 of the top 50 hold this market0 Yes · 2 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
