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Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
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OPENResearch 2h ago
69% chance
— 24hAI analysts 73% (7)Top traders 7 Yes · 0 NoNews 1 todayNews
- match: Vučić
- match: Vučić
- match: Vučić
- match: Vučić · Serbia
- match: Vučić
- match: Vučić
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AI research
What decides it
Yes only if Aleksandar Vučić is the next person the National Assembly elects Prime Minister and who is sworn in, forming a new government, by June 30, 2028. Caretaker or interim PMs do not count.
Latest
Vučić launched his campaign for prime minister ahead of the Oct 25 snap parliamentary election; if the SNS wins a majority, parliament is expected to elect him prime minister.
www.aljazeera.comAl Jazeera reported polls suggest the race could be tight between Vučić's party and the student-led opposition's Student List.
www.aljazeera.comAssembly Speaker Ana Brnabić became acting president; the acting president is authorized to "propose candidates for Prime Minister to the National Assembly", and the presidential vote is due by the end of December.
www.telegraf.rs
Case for Yes
Vučić gave up the presidency to run, is campaigning for prime minister, and parliament is expected to elect him if the SNS wins a majority; a June Faktor Plus poll had the SNS at 47.1% to the student list's 30.7%.
Case for No
A June CRTA/Stanford poll had the Student List ahead, 44.9% to 35.7% among decided voters, and Al Jazeera describes the race as possibly tight; without an SNS majority another candidate could be elected, and only an Assembly vote plus swearing-in counts.
What to watch next Oct 25 snap parliamentary election results, then the new Assembly's first session, the acting president's PM nomination after consultations, and the Assembly vote and swearing-in.
Full research
What decides it
Yes only if Aleksandar Vučić is the next person the National Assembly elects Prime Minister and who is sworn in, forming a new government, by June 30, 2028. Caretaker or interim PMs do not count. Winning the Oct 25 snap election is not enough on its own: the president (now acting president Ana Brnabić) proposes a candidate after consulting the elected lists, and the Assembly must vote. If anyone else is elected first, it is No.
Earlier
Vučić resigned as President ("I am resigning the duty of the President of the Republic"); his second term would otherwise have ended in May 2027, and the Constitution bars a third term.
www.euronews.comA CRTA and Stanford Democracy Action Lab poll conducted in June put the Student List at 44.9% and the SNS at 35.7% among decided voters.
n1info.rsA Faktor Plus poll released ahead of an SNS rally suggested the SNS would win 47.1% and the student list 30.7%.
n1info.rsPrecedent: then-President Vučić proposed Miloš Vučević to parliament as PM candidate under Article 127 of the Constitution after consulting the elected electoral lists.
www.srbija.gov.rs
Sources
- Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić resigns to run for prime minister in snap elections (Euronews) · www.euronews.com
- President Vucic resigns, Serbian Assembly President Brnabic to take over as acting president (Telegraf) · www.telegraf.rs
- Serbian populist leader Vucic launches campaign for prime minister (Al Jazeera) · www.aljazeera.com
- CRTA: 60 percent support for students (N1) · n1info.rs
- Serbian journalist questions poll showing SNS lead over student list (N1) · n1info.rs
- Milos Vucevic candidate for new prime minister (Government of Serbia) · www.srbija.gov.rs
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
73%
4 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 70%
- 80%
- 75%
- 72%
- 74%
- 72%
- 68%
Top traders
7 of the top 50 hold this market7 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
