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Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
56% chance
+2.5 pts 24hAI analysts 57% (7)News 32 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 56%
October reporting places OpenAI behind Anthropic in agents, with six weeks for ranks to change and no verified Labs table.
- 56%
Secondary reporting suggests OpenAI currently follows Anthropic, but the exact Labs table and November ordering remain uncertain.
- 56%
No current Agent Arena lab table or verified successor evaluations supplied; retain the market prior.
- 58%
October secondary reporting places OpenAI behind Anthropic and ahead of Google, but the actual Labs table and November persistence remain unverified.
- 58%
Secondary coverage suggests OpenAI currently follows Anthropic, but the resolving Labs table and future rankings remain uncertain.
- 57%
October secondary coverage places OpenAI behind Anthropic, modestly supporting second place despite missing primary ranks.
- 60%
GPT-6.1 Sol is reported second behind Claude on Agent Arena; OpenAI is the natural #2 lab.
Full research · updated 2h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI holds second place among companies on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, 'Labs' filter, 'Rank' column) when checked on 2026-11-30 at 12:00 PM ET. AutoEval models are ignored. Ties and ambiguity go to the best model in the 'Models' view, then to alphabetical order of company names.
Latest
The market's tiebreaker example mentions 'SpaceXAI' as a company in the market group, so other labs are listed.
pro.edgex.exchange +1A secondary news article (EdgeX/CryptoBriefing) says Anthropic leads the Agent Arena, with Claude Fable 5.1 (Max), Claude Opus 5.5 and Claude Sonnet 5.5. It says OpenAI follows with GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol, and that Google's Gemini 4 Argon rounds out the top ten. It gives no scores …
pro.edgex.exchange +1The same article says GPT-6.1 Sol recently entered the rankings. This suggests OpenAI is currently second among labs, but that is not confirmed by the primary source. (EdgeX)
pro.edgex.exchange
What to watch next Resolution check is 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (Labs filter). Any new model releases before then could change the ranks.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
57%
1 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
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