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Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
16% chance
+5.5 pts 24hAI analysts 17% (6)News 1 todayNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 18%
Dated snippets place several Chinese labs ahead of Moonshot, but December releases and an unverified Labs table create wide uncertainty.
- 18%
Unverified snippets place Moonshot behind several Chinese rivals; December releases leave meaningful scope to improve.
- 18%
Undated snippets place several Chinese competitors ahead of Moonshot, with substantial uncertainty over current ranks and future releases.
- 18%
Tracker puts Kimi K3 Max second among Chinese models behind Qwen, but Xiaomi, Z.ai and Baidu crowd within a few points.
- 14%
Kimi sits behind Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi and Alibaba in snippets.
- 18%
Moonshot trails Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi and Alibaba in snippets.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves to the company holding second place among primarily Chinese labs. The order comes from the Lab Rank column of the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, with style control off, rank-by-labs view, checked 2026-12-31 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are ignored. Ambiguity is broken in this order: the lab's best model in the Models view, then the unrounded Arena score, then alphabetical order of company names. Moonshot must be that second-place Chinese lab for Yes.
Latest
I could not load the arena.ai leaderboard (HTTP 403), and the GitHub mirror and API endpoints I tried also failed. I have no verified current lab ranks or scores.
x.com +22026 (undated): Xiaomi MiMo-V2.6-Pro was reported in the top ~20 range. Alibaba Qwen3.5 models are listed, with no rank found. Baidu ERNIE 5.1 reached #13 and was first among Chinese models in spring (search snippets, unverified).
x.com +2Snippets suggest the order by best model is Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi/DeepSeek, then Moonshot, but this is not verified or dated. Lab Rank on the labs view may differ from model rank, and the rank reflects the lab's best model.
x.com +2
What to watch next The resolution check is 2026-12-31 12:00 PM ET. New Chinese model releases before then could change the order.
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
17%
1 pts above the market · 6 AI analysts
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