MarketsAI
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
18% chance
+0.8 pts 24hAI analysts 18% (7)News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 18%
Provider prices near this range offer weak context; the actual Ornn index level and methodology are unverified.
- 18%
Provider prices suggest expensive H100 capacity, but neither the current Ornn index nor its relationship to those prices is established.
- 18%
Provider prices are not the Ornn index, so the unverified current index supplies no independent bracket edge.
- 18%
Provider rental quotes do not establish the current Ornn index or its year-end bracket.
- 20%
On-demand medians are near $3.50 and rising, but the Ornn methodology is unknown; this is one of several brackets.
- 18%
No brief; near the market.
- 18%
The source market mirror at 17.7%; spot H100 list prices are rising, but the index is unread.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the finalized Ornn H100 Index value for 2026-12-31, as shown on the chart at dashboard.ornnai.com, is between $3.00 and $3.50. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket, so exactly $3.50 resolves to the next bracket up. The value is final once the next day's point is published. If it isn't final by the end of the 7th calendar day after Dec 31 (ET), the latest available data is used. Later revisions are ignored.
Latest
I could not read the dashboard at dashboard.ornnai.com. The fetch returned only the page shell (H100 selector, 1W/1M/3M ranges) with no numbers, so I have no confirmed current Ornn H100 Index value (Ornn dashboard).
dashboard.ornnai.com2026-10: Search snippets say H100 list prices rose at several providers in October 2026. Nebius went from $3.85 to $4.50 on 2026-10-01. Runpod Secure H100 SXM went from $3.29 to $3.99. AWS Capacity Blocks went from $5.19 to $5.97. The median on-demand H100 SXM price was reported as about $4.20/hr (…
dashboard.ornnai.com +22026-mid: Search snippets give 1-year H100 contract rates of roughly $2.35–$2.74/hr in mid-2026 (search snippet, unverified).
dashboard.ornnai.com +2Ornn publishes compute price indices by GPU type (H100, H200, B200). The Ornn index methodology may differ from the list prices above (Ornn / Substack).
dashboard.ornnai.com +1A the source market market on year-end 2026 H100 rental prices cites 'current on-demand medians near $3.50 per GPU-hour across providers'. That is a provider median, not the Ornn index (the source market page summary).
theinnermostloop.substack.comthe source market's year-end H100 bracket prices were $3.00–3.50 at 17.7%, $2.50–3.00 at 17.4%, $1.50–2.00 at 16.3%, $2.00–2.50 at 15.8%, $3.50–4.00 at 13%, above $4.00 at 14%, below $1.50 at 8%. Volume was about $72k, and the market has been open since 2026-07-10. These are the odds of a rela…
dashboard.ornnai.com +2
What to watch next The 2026-12-31 index data point is finalized when the 2027-01-01 point is published. The 7-day fallback ends 2027-01-07 (ET).
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
18%
level with the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
