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Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level open
December 31, 2026 11%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
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AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
December 31, 202611%6%−5
AI analysts' average · December 31, 2026
6%
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 284 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31, 2026Yes molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No enrico-vasaioenrico-vasaio: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 enrico-vasaioenrico-vasaio: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2melonmanmmelonmanm: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 3
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
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Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of Anthropic, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used Anthropic's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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