MarketsAI
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
42% chance
+0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 38% (4)News 40 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta · AI
- match: Meta
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Meta holds the third-highest Lab Rank on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off, Labs view, AutoEval models excluded) when checked on 2026-12-31 at 12:00 PM ET. Ambiguity is broken by each lab's best model in the Models view, then by Arena score, then alphabetically.
Latest
I could not load arena.ai directly (HTTP 403), so I have no verified current Lab Rank table.
cryptobriefing.com2026-10: A search summary says Anthropic, OpenAI and Google hold the top positions on the Arena rankings it covered, which were Agent Arena. It said Meta's 'Muse Spark' models appeared among top positions in September 2026 rankings. I could not verify either claim against the leaderboard (cryptobri…
cryptobriefing.com2026-10: The same search summary says Google's 'Gemini 4 Argon' was announced on 2026-09-30. That is unverified.
cryptobriefing.com
What to watch next Check of the arena.ai Labs leaderboard on 2026-12-31 12:00 PM ET.
Full research
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
38%
4 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
All 4, with track records
AI analysts
- 40%
- 40%
- 40%
- 30%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
