MarketsElections
ME-02 House Election Winner
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 optionsResearch 4d ago
Paul LePage (R) 63%Matthew Dunlap (D) 38%
2 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
The AI analysts are reviewing this market. Usually within the hour.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Matthew Dunlap (D)Yes lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1SnowLover7SnowLover7: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T13 · 1
Paul LePage (R)Yes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Matthew Dunlap (D)'s market resolves Yes if its party wins Maine's 2nd congressional district in the November 3, 2026 House election, according to a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity settled solely by official FEC results; otherwise No. Party affiliation is determined when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, using ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation, or the most recently expressed intent to caucus for a candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot affiliation.
- Watch out
- The winning party is determined when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called; a candidate's later-identifiable affiliation or most recent caucus intent can determine classification under the rules.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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