MarketsAI
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
35% chance
+8.0 pts 24hTop traders 5 Yes · 6 NoNews 13 todayNews
- match: Astra
- match: Astra · GPT-6 Astra
- match: Astra · GPT-6 Astra
- match: Astra · GPT-6 Astra
- match: Astra · GPT-6 Astra
- match: Astra
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AI research
What decides it
Yes only if OpenAI makes publicly available by Oct 31, 2026 (ET) a model with "Astra" in its name or ID at version 6.1 or higher (e.g., GPT-6.1 Astra, GPT Astra 7). GPT-6 Astra in any rollout, Pro/Fast mode or snapshot does not count; nor do tier lines such as GPT-6.1 Sol, or Codex, Daybreak, image or realtime models.
Latest
The Batch reported, citing the WSJ, that OpenAI canceled the planned October release of GPT-6.1 Astra, that GPT-6 Astra won't get a matching upgrade for now, and that OpenAI hopes to reuse its base model for future GPT-6 training.
www.deeplearning.aiDataLearner lists GPT-6.1 Astra as unreleased as of Oct 4 and notes an OpenAI Codex lead's "coming soon" reply on X was not an official announcement.
www.datalearner.comOpenAI introduced GPT-6.1 Sol at DevDay, via the API and in ChatGPT Work and Codex for paid tiers; tier-labeled Sol models are excluded by this market's rules.
www.deeplearning.ai
Case for Yes
A GPT-6.1 Astra was built and had been scheduled for an October release before it was pulled, and OpenAI hopes to reuse its base model. An OpenAI Codex lead replied "coming soon" on X (unofficial, per DataLearner).
Case for No
OpenAI canceled GPT-6.1 Astra's planned launch on Sep 28 after safety testing, and The Batch (Oct 9) reports GPT-6 Astra won't get a matching upgrade for now. The model shipped instead, GPT-6.1 Sol, is excluded by the rules. No official Astra 6.1+ announcement was found as of Oct 14.
What to watch next Official OpenAI channels (openai.com, release notes, API model list) through Oct 31 ET for any Astra 6.1+ name, and any statement reversing the Sep 28 cancellation.
Full research
What decides it
Yes only if OpenAI makes publicly available by Oct 31, 2026 (ET) a model with "Astra" in its name or ID at version 6.1 or higher (e.g., GPT-6.1 Astra, GPT Astra 7). GPT-6 Astra in any rollout, Pro/Fast mode or snapshot does not count; nor do tier lines such as GPT-6.1 Sol, or Codex, Daybreak, image or realtime models. Open beta or open waitlist counts; closed or private access does not. Trap: GPT-6.1 Sol shipped Sep 29 and does not qualify.
Earlier
OpenAI canceled the planned launch of GPT-6.1 Astra; head of safety systems Saachi Jain said it "didn't quite meet the bar in terms of staying within scope and authorization."
www.adn.comOpenAI launched GPT-6 Astra, first to customers of its Daybreak cybersecurity program, then to paid ChatGPT plans and the API within a week.
techcrunch.comOpenAI paused reinforcement-learning training of its frontier models for two weeks, citing preliminary evidence that its upcoming Astra model has advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
www.bankinfosecurity.com
Sources
- OpenAI Pauses Frontier Model Training for Safety Review (BankInfoSecurity) · www.bankinfosecurity.com
- OpenAI launches Astra, its powerful and controversial new model (TechCrunch) · techcrunch.com
- OpenAI cancels planned launch of new AI model, citing safety issues (Washington Post via ADN) · www.adn.com
- Sol Nearly Eclipses Astra (The Batch) · www.deeplearning.ai
- GPT-6.1 Astra (DataLearner) · www.datalearner.com
Research, not advice.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
