MarketsAI
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
79% chance
+12.5 pts 24hAI analysts 74% (7)News 4 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 72%
The predecessor's reported $50 standard output price supports continuity, discounted for release timing and possible price cuts.
- 72%
The incumbent's $50 output price supports continuity, but both a qualifying successor and its debut price remain uncertain.
- 75%
The predecessor's reported $50 standard output price supports the threshold, conditional on a timely qualifying release and unchanged pricing.
- 78%
The predecessor's reported $50 output price supports continuity, while qualifying release timing and official debut pricing remain uncertain.
- 75%
Fable 5.1 is $50 output and Anthropic usually holds pricing, but it cut Opus pricing at 4.5.
- 78%
Fable 5.1 lists $50 output; Anthropic usually holds price within a family, but a cut like Opus 4.5's is possible.
- 70%
Fable 5.1 lists $50 output and the same-price successor is the default, but there is real risk of a price cut on the next version plus a small no-release risk.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Yes if Anthropic releases to the general public, by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET, a model with 'Fable' in its name and version 5.2 or higher (including Fable 6), and its debut standard global 'Base tokens' output price is at least the market's price. Batch, fast mode, cached and US-only prices don't count. Otherwise No. The price threshold is $50, taken from the question title.
Latest
Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 were released together (letsdatascience). Fable 5.1 sits below the 5.2 qualifying threshold, so it doesn't count.
letsdatascience.comI found no announcement of Fable 5.2 or Fable 6. I didn't check Anthropic's official pricing page directly.
www.eesel.ai +2Third-party pricing trackers list Claude Fable 5.1 API at $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens. Batch is $25 output. (eesel.ai, anotherwrapper, pricepertoken via search snippet)
www.eesel.ai +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
74%
5 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
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