How do I trade on "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 50m ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Anthropic 78%OpenAI 13%Meta 12%xAI 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

6 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anthropic78%+17.5 pts70%none

OpenAI13%+2.5 pts10%0 · 2

Meta12%+3.0 pts9%none

xAI7%—5%none

DeepSeek6%—3%none

Baidu5%—2%none

6 options trading, by chance. +8 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 50m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anthropic78%70%−8

OpenAI13%10%−3

Meta12%9%−3

xAI7%5%−2

DeepSeek6%3%−3

Baidu5%2%−3

AI analysts' average · DeepSeek

3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 70% vs market 78%, 8 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 50m ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

OpenAI20 · 2

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 levels openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 50m ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Anthropic 78%OpenAI 13%Meta 12%xAI 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

6 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anthropic78%+17.5 pts70%none

OpenAI13%+2.5 pts10%0 · 2

Meta12%+3.0 pts9%none

xAI7%—5%none

DeepSeek6%—3%none

Baidu5%—2%none

6 options trading, by chance. +8 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 50m ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anthropic78%70%−8

OpenAI13%10%−3

Meta12%9%−3

xAI7%5%−2

DeepSeek6%3%−3

Baidu5%2%−3

AI analysts' average · DeepSeek

3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Anthropic: AI 70% vs market 78%, 8 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 50m ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

OpenAI20 · 2

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts