How do I trade on "Will Microsoft be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN10 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 10 options

Z.ai 34%Meta 20%OpenAI 10%Microsoft 9%

10 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Z.ai34%+4.4 pts39%3 · 0

Meta20%−19.9 pts40%0 · 1

OpenAI10%+3.1 pts9%1 · 0

Microsoft9%−1.2 pts8%none

Google8%+1.5 pts8%1 · 1

Xiaomi5%+3.0 pts4%none

Bytedance3%+2.6 pts13%none

Anthropic2%−4.6 pts3%none

Baidu1%+0.8 pts11%none

DeepSeek1%−3.7 pts7%none

10 options trading, by chance. +10 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Z.ai34%39%+5

Meta20%40%+20

OpenAI10%9%−1

Microsoft9%8%−1

Google8%8%0

Xiaomi5%4%−1

+4 more options

AI analysts' average · Microsoft

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Meta: AI 40% vs market 20%, 20 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Z.ai33 · 0

Google21 · 1

Meta10 · 1

OpenAI11 · 0

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN10 optionsCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket price · top 4 of 10 options

Z.ai 34%Meta 20%OpenAI 10%Microsoft 9%

10 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Z.ai34%+4.4 pts39%3 · 0

Meta20%−19.9 pts40%0 · 1

OpenAI10%+3.1 pts9%1 · 0

Microsoft9%−1.2 pts8%none

Google8%+1.5 pts8%1 · 1

Xiaomi5%+3.0 pts4%none

Bytedance3%+2.6 pts13%none

Anthropic2%−4.6 pts3%none

Baidu1%+0.8 pts11%none

DeepSeek1%−3.7 pts7%none

10 options trading, by chance. +10 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Z.ai34%39%+5

Meta20%40%+20

OpenAI10%9%−1

Microsoft9%8%−1

Google8%8%0

Xiaomi5%4%−1

+4 more options

AI analysts' average · Microsoft

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Meta: AI 40% vs market 20%, 20 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Z.ai33 · 0

Google21 · 1

Meta10 · 1

OpenAI11 · 0

6 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

Related Markets

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 10 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts