MarketsAI
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
22% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 45% (3)Top traders 0 Yes · 1 NoOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Fable
- match: Fable · model · Claude Fable
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the next model with 'Fable' in its name and version 5.2 or higher to be newly added to agi.safe.ai shows an HLE Accuracy of at least 60% at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first appears. Resolves No if no such model is added by 2027-06-30, or if the site data is unavailable through the seventh day after it first appears.
Latest
2026-09: Third-party trackers show Fable 5.1 HLE results of 59.1% at max effort, 58.7% at xhigh and 55.9% at high. One aggregator lists 65% as of 2026-09-09. These are not agi.safe.ai figures, and I did not verify what agi.safe.ai shows for Fable 5.1.
emergent.sh +2I found no announcement of a Fable 5.2 or Fable 6. Techsy has a 'Fable 6 release date' speculation article.
emergent.sh +2Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1, with Mythos 5.1 as the same model under tighter access. Version 5.1 is below 5.2 and does not qualify (emergent.sh, netchoice summary).
emergent.sh
What to watch next No release date for Fable 5.2 or later is known.
Full research
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
45%
23 pts above the market · 3 AI analysts
All 3, with track records
AI analysts
- 55%
- 55%
- 25%
Top traders
1 of the top 50 holds this market0 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
