MarketsWorld
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN24 levels openResearch 2d ago
Abbas Araghchi 44%Steve Witkoff 42%Jared Kushner 42%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani 39%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
24 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
24 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Abbas Araghchi44%32%−12
Steve Witkoff42%30%−12
Jared Kushner42%27%−15
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani39%25%−14
Majid Takht-Ravanchi38%15%−23
J.D. Vance32%16%−16
+18 more options
AI analysts' average · Melania Trump
2%
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 373 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al ThaniYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
Kazem GharibabadiYes SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 101456101456: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 101456101456: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
Steve WitkoffYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Majid Takht-RavanchiYes BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 BigMackyGBigMackyG: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
J.D. VanceYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Ishaq DarYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Masoud PezeshkianYes 101456101456: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 101456101456: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Mohammed bin SalmanYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2101456101456: Tier 2, #37 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Abbas AraghchiYes CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Jared KushnerYes CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Rafael GrossiNo smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Badr bin Hamad Al BusaidiYes smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Donald TrumpNo CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Melania TrumpNo smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 smellyElliesmellyEllie: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Pete HegsethNo CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CarCar: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Melania Trump resolves Yes if Melania Trump is physically present and actively participates in a formal senior-level in-person US-Iran peace-talks round held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Indirect in-person talks through mediators count if senior US and Iranian representatives take part in the same formal process. Phone or remote contact, technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation or preparatory meetings, and follow-ons to the June 22 Switzerland round d…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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