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MarketsAI

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN18 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 5h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 18 options

Z.ai 40%OpenAI 8%Meta 7%Xiaomi 6%

18 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Z.ai40%+7.1 pts37%3 · 0
OpenAI8%−0.1 pts9%1 · 0
Meta7%−8.6 pts40%0 · 1
Xiaomi6%+0.7 pts4%none
Google6%−2.0 pts8%1 · 1
StepFun5%+0.9 pts2%none
Microsoft4%−5.0 pts8%none
Alibaba4%+0.2 pts5%1 · 0
Moonshot3%—5%none
DeepSeek3%+1.5 pts6%none
Bytedance3%−0.4 pts13%none
Anthropic2%−3.5 pts3%none
MiniMax2%—2%none
Amazon2%−0.6 pts2%none
SpaceXAI<1%−6.7 pts5%none
Baidu<1%−0.3 pts11%none
Mistral<1%+0.1 pts1%none
Tencent<1%−0.1 pts1%none

18 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Z.ai40%37%−3
OpenAI8%9%+1
Meta7%40%+33
Xiaomi6%4%−2
Google6%8%+2
StepFun5%2%−3
+12 more options

AI analysts' average · SpaceXAI

5%

4 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Meta: AI 40% vs market 7%, 33 pts above

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

2News

  • 2d
    NYC Council Holds Follow-Up AI Safety Hearing on SpaceXAI
    BKReader
  • 2d
    Zetaris launches AI data harness with SpaceXAI tie-up
    IT Brief Asia
  • 6d
    SpaceXAI rep insists company doesn't release AI models that are unsafe
    Fox News
  • 6d
    SpaceXAI Updates Speech-to-Speech Model
    Slator
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Z.ai33 · 0
Google21 · 1
OpenAI11 · 0
Meta10 · 1
Alibaba11 · 0

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 18 options

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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SpaceXAI · Buy YesOption 15 of 18

Polymarket price · live

Yes15¢
No99¢
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Before you decide · SpaceXAI

  • News0 today · latest 2d
  • AI analysts5% · 4 pts above
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.