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MarketsAI

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of November?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN17 optionsCloses Dec 2, 2026Research 50m ago

Polymarket chance · top 4 of 17 options

Google 53%Anthropic 28%Moonshot 8%Meta 5%

17 options · by chance

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Google53%−1.0 pts48%none
Anthropic28%−0.5 pts29%none
Moonshot8%+2.3 pts4%—
Meta5%−0.3 pts7%none
OpenAI5%−0.7 pts7%none
StepFun5%−1.7 pts2%none
Z.ai4%+0.1 pts3%none
Mistral4%+0.3 pts1%none
SpaceXAI4%—3%none
DeepSeek4%+0.2 pts3%—
Tencent4%−1.8 pts3%none
MiniMax3%−0.1 pts2%none
Alibaba3%—3%none
ByteDance2%—2%none
Xiaomi1%+0.1 pts2%none
Nvidia<1%———
Baidu<1%———

17 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 50m ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Google53%48%−5
Anthropic28%29%+1
Moonshot8%4%−4
Meta5%7%+2
OpenAI5%7%+2
StepFun5%2%−3
+11 more options

AI analysts' average · Moonshot

4%

4 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 180 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 2h
    Moonshot AI Releases Kimi K3.1 Pro, First Model in New K3.1 Series
    Unite.AI
  • 3h
    Moonshot Debuts First AI Upgrade Since Its Own DeepSeek Moment
    Bloomberg.com
  • 4h
    ASEAN moonshot: AI and women
    Daily Tribune
  • 10h
    Moonshot AI's New Model Kimi K3.1 Apparently Leaked, With 3D Code Generation in Focus
    BigGo Finance
  • 19h
    Datasets by Moonshot AI
    Hugging Face
  • 1d
    The 17-Year-Old AI Prodigy Who Impressed Even Musk Leaves Moonshot for Jeff Dean's Startup
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    17-Year-Old AI Researcher Chen Guangyu Leaves Moonshot's Kimi for Jeff Dean's Startup Discovery Loop
    BigGo Finance
  • 2d
    China's Moonshot AI to operate in Singapore, jobs post shows
    Reuters
  • 5d
    Moonshot Thinking & the 10X Model: A Growth Framework
    FourWeekMBA
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

13 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 17 options

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How markets resolve
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Moonshot · Buy YesOption 3 of 17

Polymarket price · live

Yes12¢
No96¢

Mid: The midpoint between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. When the spread is 10¢ or less, this is the chance the page shows. 8¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 8¢

Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Moonshot

  • News5 today · latest 2h
  • AI analysts4% · 4 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.