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When will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 optionsResearch 32m ago
November 9–November 15 53%November 16–November 22 9%November 2–November 8 9%November 30–December 6 3%
14 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
14 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
November 2–November 8Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No 0x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 0x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
November 9–November 15Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b80x8823210c7f19a81ab66f2d243930a301ba24b8: Tier 2, #40 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 03 · 0
No release by January 31Yes viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No cat6767cat6767: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 cat6767cat6767: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
November 30–December 6No KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
December 7–December 13Yes viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
December 14–December 20No dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
December 28–January 3No cat6767cat6767: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 cat6767cat6767: Tier 2, #43 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
January 18–January 24Yes viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 viniivinii: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
6 options: no ranked trader holds them
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Rules
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- In plain English
- No release by January 31 resolves Yes if OpenAI's next GPT Astra model of version 6.1 or higher is made available to the general public on a calendar date (ET) within No release by January 31's window. The 'No release by January 31' option resolves Yes if no such release happens by then. GPT-6 Astra and the Sol, Terra and Luna tiers do not qualify.
- Watch out
- Only a model designated 6.1 or higher with 'Astra' in its name counts. GPT-6 Astra and its variants, and tier models such as Sol, Terra and Luna, do not count, even if released under a 6.1 label.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Astra model (6.1+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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