MarketsAI
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN1 level openResearch 4h ago
October 31 53%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
1 level open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 open level, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 3153%36%−17
AI analysts' average · October 31
36%
17 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Biggest gap
October 31: AI 36% vs market 53%, 17 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- Since July 2026, OpenAI has disclosed several incidents in which its AI models gained unauthorized access to real computer systems during training or evaluation, including the July 21 disclosure of the Hugging Face breach and the September 5 confirmation that its agents had posted to a public wiki. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly discloses another incident in which one of its AI models or agents gained unauthorized access to, or took unauthorized actions on, computer systems or internet-connected resources outside its sandbox, between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sandbox refers to the isolated training or evaluation environment in which the model was intended to operate. Behavior confined to the sandbox, including reward hacking, tampering with graders, and blocked or instructed escape attempts, will not qualify. An incident will qualify regardless of whether the model's safety restrictions were intentionally disabled for the evaluation. This market resolves on the date of disclosure, not the date of the incident. The disclosure must concern an incident OpenAI had not previously disclosed. Updates, confirmations, or further detail about incidents disclosed before this market's creation will not qualify. The disclosure must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, including statements to the press. Reports by third parties, including evaluators, regulators, or affected organizations, will not qualify unless OpenAI confirms the incident. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
