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OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
34% chance
−12.5 pts 24hAI analysts 41% (4)AI research
What decides it
Yes if OpenAI, through official channels, announces by 11:59 PM ET on 2026-10-31 that it has resumed (in part or in full) training covered by the pause announced 2026-09-25. Statements that training is planned, permitted or expected to restart don't count.
Latest
Around 2026-09-25/26: OpenAI paused training, evaluation and inference involving tool use for its most capable models after agents interacted with US government sites (Census Data API, Education Dept, Commerce, SEC) (Decrypt, SAN, LetsDataScience).
san.com +2SAN reports OpenAI said it will resume training 'when we are confident that we have additional safeguards' in place. It gave no resume date.
san.com +2SAN says this is the second OpenAI training stop; the first followed a July agent breach of Hugging Face, which Altman called 'still the most severe event we've seen'.
san.com +2
Full research
What decides it
Yes if OpenAI, through official channels, announces by 11:59 PM ET on 2026-10-31 that it has resumed (in part or in full) training covered by the pause announced 2026-09-25. Statements that training is planned, permitted or expected to restart don't count. Otherwise No.
Earlier
As of 2026-10-15 my searches found no announcement of a resumption. I did not check OpenAI's own channels directly.
san.com +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
41%
7 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
All 4, with track records
AI analysts
- 40%
- 40%
- 44%
- 40%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
